Hi everybody. My name's Bradley and I like basketball. Especially the NBA variety. Mainly because, while the NBA is no less an evil corporation than any other major sports organization, they at least compensate the athletes properly for their skills and physical sacrifices. (I'm looking at you, NCAA and NFL.) It's also a great blend of skill, athleticism, strategy and showmanship. I appreciate those things.
The NBA has been riding high over the last few seasons, with the pool of talent being better than any other time in the history of the sport. That's right. I said it. The eighties put this league on the map, but the sheer depth of game-changing superstars that the modern era has to offer puts this group at the top. The Magic/Bird era that moved through the end of the century is widely considered to be unbeatable. After watching this league over the last couple of years, I can't agree with that anymore. I might defend this argument in greater detail in a future blog post, but my point is that we as fans are enjoying a golden age of this sport right now. This season in particular is looking like it could be the most compelling and exciting one ever.
Let's get started by breaking down how I'm going to approach this preview. There are other places to check out a team by team breakdown, but frankly, not every team is worth spending a lot of time discussing. I'll mostly be analysing the contenders, while also touching on a few teams who have very interesting narratives going into this year. I also realise that a "preview" should technically happen BEFORE the season starts, but if you're looking for timeliness from this blog, you're going to be disappointed. Sorry.
Here we go.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The East is still going to be the West's whipping boy, but the gap between the two is starting to narrow. The main reason for this is that the East will have fewer completely awful teams going forward. Boston, Milwaukee, Orlando and Indiana will be better to varying degrees. The only teams that will continue to brutally stink are Charlotte, Detroit, Philly and Brooklyn. Let's look at the most dominant or interesting squads.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Let's start at the top. Cleveland somehow cake-walked through the playoffs to the finals while also walking with a limp. Having the best all-around player in the world on your team helps I guess. Like I said above, the East has gotten better, and things shouldn't be as easy this year. But despite no major roster moves, this won't be the same Cavs we saw last year either. For one thing, David Blatt won't be coming into this campaign as a rookie coach. Yes, King James will still overrule him sometimes. That's guaranteed. But having experience dealing with Lebron and the rest of the team will cause James to meddle less often. Expect better late game play-calling, but more importantly, expect better rotations. There's no way Lebron plays more than sixty-five games this season, and Irving and Love will also get a ton of rest. This group will be taking a page from the Spurs and will be focused only on the last six weeks of the year. Say hello to your 2016 Eastern Conference Champions.
Chicago Bulls
Thibs is out. Hoiberg is in. Bulls management knows that the window of this veteran team is closing quickly, and are hoping a change in philosophy will get them over the hump. It won't. Pau Gasol is still underrated, but isn't utilized properly in their system, and can't compete at full potential over the full grind anymore. Joakim Noah is paying the price for his physical, aggressive style of play, and will probably be out of the league in two years. If you could splice Mirotic and Gibson together, you'd have the perfect modern NBA power forward, but each only really plays one end of the floor. Jimmy Butler is solid, but seems to be one of those guys who wouldn't have put up the numbers he did last year if you dropped him on any other team in the league that has actual scorers. Not to mention Derrick Rose, the most unlucky man in the league. Certain players would bounce back from his years of knee issues with an adjusted, but still functional game. But his skill-set was always based on speed, power and quick changes of direction. He'll probably never have those back. He isn't a dangerous shooter, and is only average as a playmaker. Sadly, his MVP form is history. Expect friction to continue between Rose and Butler too, although neither guy is good enough to lead this team to a title.
Atlanta Hawks
By far the surprise of the league last year, the Hawks showed people what a real T-E-A-M can accomplish when everyone plays within themselves, and with precision. Without a true superstar, Atlanta executed a system that maximized the skills of it's roster, and kept on out-playing other, more talented teams. They will still be solid this year, but expect some regression. Many experts considered DeMarre Carroll the most important player on the team last year. He's a Raptor now. The Hawks still boast the deepest group of bigs in the East, along with solid perimeter play from Korver and the guards. But everyone sees them coming this season, and will have plans in place to shut down the efficient Atlanta offence.
Miami Heat
If you want a sleeper pick for an Eastern powerhouse, look no further than South Beach. Wade has enough in the tank for one more run. The perennially undervalued Chris Bosh will be back from injury with his skill-set that no other big man in the league can boast. Dragic will benefit from a full training camp and more time running the Heat system. Most importantly, Miami comes into this season with something they haven't had at any time since the Big Three came in. Depth at every position. The Heat will be the team that benefits most from Chicago and Atlanta fading back. Plus, don't underestimate the Lebron revenge factor. They don't talk about it, but it's there.
Washington Wizards
Wall and Beal might be the best back-court in the East. This team also boasts solid veteran shooters and quality bigs. If Otto Porter ascends to an All-Star level, this team could finish second in the conference. Nobody's talking about the Wizards, but they should be.
Toronto Raptors
I'll be honest with you, I'm a Raptors guy. Just putting that out there now. I like the roster we have in place, but don't fully LOVE it, you know? The top eight roster spots stack up very well with any other East team, but there is a lot of uncertainty about "The Drakes" this year. Last season, they took advantage of a weak conference and looked like a great team on many nights. But come playoff time, Toronto's lack of rim protection, inconsistent perimeter D, and inexperience were exposed. The roster moves made over the summer were done specifically to improve those flaws. Scola is the last guy you'd expect to be a stopper in the paint, but he over-achieves. DeMarre Carroll was brought in to add shooting, toughness and defense. Hometown boys Anthony Bennett and Cory Joseph don't have to be amazing, they just have to maximize the opportunities they'll get to contribute. It seems like Toronto has everything they need to contend, but there are still questions. Will Lowry stay healthy and focused all season and into the playoffs? Will Derozan, Ross and Valanciunas take the next step and become stars? Will Carroll provide the missing ingredients to send this team over the top, or was he just the right guy for Atlanta's system? For any hope of dethroning King James, the answer to most or all of those questions needs to be a "yes".
BONUS TEAMS
Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic
Both of these teams will be the sweethearts of the hardcore NBA fan this season, but neither squad is ready to compete with the above contenders. Both of them have the largest upside of any team in the league right now, but don't quite have all the pieces in place. Orlando has Hezonja (a dark horse for ROY) and Harris at the 3, the best young bigs in the conference, and an unconventional, but athletic backcourt. The Bucks have Giannis, Jabari and Khris Middleton. That trio has the highest potential ceiling in the game, and the Bucks have surrounded them with solid journeymen from around the league. Both teams need seasoning and possibly a couple of trades to hit the next level, but they'll be fun to watch in the meantime.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Never has the West been wilder. Five teams are being discussed as 2016 NBA champions, and all of them have a real shot at doing it. I'm going to be thankful for my PVR this year, as almost nightly there will be West coast games on late that will be must watch the next morning. As a whole though, the Western Conference has gotten a bit top heavy. Portland could finish dead last this year, although the Lakers and the Kings won't make that automatic. Over the last decade, the West has had a stranglehold over the East for wins. I don't expect that to happen this year.
Golden State Warriors
My other fave team, I've been a GSW fan since before the Raptors existed. Since the Run TMC days actually, so it was great to see them hold the Larry Trophy high this year. Many critics have been saying that the Warriors got an easy run through the playoffs last season, due to major injuries for most of the opposition. Those critics have a point, but let's not forget that Golden State did it ALL FREAKIN' YEAR. The most wins since a certain Micheal-led Bulls team. A huge point differential and shattering many offensive records (especially from behind the arc). The only player that moved on was David Lee, who wasn't a huge part of the current system anyway. Steph and Klay are one year older. Draymond and Harrison are too. This team shouldn't have been this good this early, but here we are. If they can keep this core intact, expect them to contend for the next five years or so.
LA Clippers
Nobody internally is saying it, but this year seems like it's "all-in" for this team. With all the veteran additions, and bringing Jordan back, this group is in salary cap hell. They are gambling that it will be worth it. Already boasting the best starting five in basketball, the Clips slapped some armor on their Achilles heel, the bench. Say hello to Prigioni, Lance Stephenson, Paul Pierce and Josh Smith. On paper, that lineup is a nightmare for every other team. The problem is, something has always prevented the Clippers from delivering on that potential. Jordan can't hit free throws, and you're adding some strong personalities, (one could even say "knuckleheads") to an already volatile roster. This much crazy on one team can't be ignored, but if anyone can rein in that aggression and channel it in the right directions, it's Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce. The last point that can't be ignored is that it seems like Chris Paul realizes that this is probably his best shot at getting a ring. He will never be surrounded by this much talent again, and he isn't getting any younger.
Houston Rockets
Finally the best team in Texas (which is kind of a big deal), Houston is the next biggest threat to a Warriors repeat. Harden is the best offensive player on planet Earth, and Howard is the best centre. If you can trot both of those guys out on most nights, you're going to win a lot of games. Adding Ty Lawson should take some pressure off of Harden and let him focus on scoring. Adding Ty Lawson to this group may also cause the team to implode. Houston isn't Clippers-level crazy, but they aren't much better. It sounds obvious to say that chemistry and physical health are vital to playoff success, but with the Rockets thin bench, it's even more important to them to keep everyone on the floor.
San Antonio Spurs
Every year people write off the Spurs, and every year they tend to prove the critics wrong. Last year though, the cracks and wrinkles finally began to show. Manu and Tim were still huge pieces, but can no longer bring superstar level play every game anymore. That was expected. The sudden decline of Tony Parker was less so. There's a chance it was temporary, and Parker will regain his form, but after two decades of pro and international play, his motor may be burnt out. Aldridge, Green and Leonard are the new core of this model franchise, but none of them are quite what the former core was at their peak. Sure, I'll concede that IT'S POSSIBLE that the Spurs have one more title in them, but I doubt it. Long live the kings.
OKC Thunder
Many people are predicting that a healthy Thunder team will steamroll the West and finally claim the championship that they deserve. At full gear, Durant and Westbrook and physical freaks, and Ibaka has a combination of athleticism and touch that are unmatched at his position. When they all share the floor, they are unbeatable. However, I think that they will never share the floor at full gear ever again. I have two words for people who predict Thunder domination. Grant Hill. Like Durant, Hill was a top three player when he went down, and suffered through multiple surgeries before getting back on the court. Hill was never the same after his nearly four year ordeal, and eventually reinvented himself as a utility role player who showed flashes of former glory. I believe the same fate awaits KD. I'd love to be proven wrong. Don't feel bad for Durant. Somebody will pay him a max deal just on the CHANCE that he gets it back someday. Do feel bad for OKC though, who can't shake off the Harden curse and will see Russ and Kevin both move on after this season.
BONUS TEAMS
Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans
Two teams heading in completely opposite directions. The Mavs have actually done a decent job surrounding Dirk with a decent team every year. Not usually a GREAT group, but solid. This year is no exception, as they are rolling the dice on a washed up, formerly great point guard, and a combo guard who looked like a future all star before suffering a serious injury. Even if those two perform as hoped, The Mavs just don't have enough talent to survive the playoff grind. The Pelicans, on the other hand, have the NEXT best player in the world, Anthony Davis. He's everything he's supposed to be, but all he has for help is Asik, a glut of combo guards and some marginal NBA players. To be truly great, Davis is going to need a fantastic point guard to work with. Until then, the Pelicans are grounded.
FINALS PREDICTION
I think that Cleveland is a 70% favorite to advance in the East, with Miami having a chance as well. Out West I think that the Clippers and the Warriors are the best options, with GSW having a better chance. If you have to pin me down for a firm prediction, I'll go with the Cavs winning it all, mainly because the West bracket will be a train wreck that will leave the winner too tired and banged up to win.
Predictably,
B
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